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Corn Market  Analysis  for 8-30-10

September Corn finished up 4 1/2 at 425 1/2, 2 /34 up from the low and 3 3/4 off the high. December Corn closed up 5 1/2 at 441 1/2. This was 3 1/2 up from the low and 3 3/4 off the high.

December corn traded higher overnight and into the day session with prices remaining in a narrow range on the day amid light volume. Export sales activity was limited today with a sugar processor in Taiwan looking to buy 23,000 tonnes of US corn. The early gains took the December contract to its highest level since January 11th with support credited to recent strong export demand for corn and concern over the possibility of yields below the 165 bushels per acre that was forecast by the USDA in early August. The high for January (and the year) in the December contract was 449 3/4. This week’s export inspections for corn were 45.3 million bushels, up from 43.7 million last week. As we head into the last week of the 2009/10 crop marketing year, inspections need to hit 138.840 million bushels to reach the USDA’s export projection.

November Rice closed up 0.01 at 11.495, 0.055 off the high and equal to the low.

Wheat Market  Analysis Report for 8-30-10

December wheat began the day session with a surge following a rally to a new 28-month high in wheat in Germany this morning. Traders said that further support came from dry conditions in Western Australia and in the western areas of the wheat growing belt in Argentina. However, the market sold off into late morning and again into early afternoon. This left December wheat higher on the day into the close, but back down near the overnight lows. Weather reports from Australia during the session called for rains this week that could cut the dry area in the western wheat belt in half. Rains in Northern Europe have extended over into northern winter wheat growing areas in Russia. This has brought some relief, with areas that need to be planted by mid September said to have enough moisture for planting and germination. However, continued dryness in other areas and forecasts for more dryness into next week has left half of the winter wheat area with too little moisture for planting at this point according to sources in Russia. This week’s export inspections for wheat were 25.5 million bushels, up from 24.6 million last week. Soft red wheat exports nearly tripled in volume from last week’s 402,000 bushels to 1.14 million. Despite the recent surge in exports, the total wheat inspections to date stand at just 19.8% of the USDA’s export forecast for 2010/11 versus a 5-year average of 25.1%. Inspections need to average 24.1 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s forecast.

September Wheat ended 8 3/4 higher at 671 1/4, 24 off the high and 5 3/4 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 9 1/2 at 704 1/2. This was 5 1/4 up from the low and 24 1/2 off the high.

December Oats ended 1/4 lower at 278 1/4. This was equal to the low and 6 3/4 off the high.

8-30-10 – Soybean Complex Market Recap Report

November soybeans traded sideways at a moderately higher level overnight before seeing its gains erased early in the day session. A recovery rally into mid session fell short and the November contract pushed to a modest loss on the day into the close. Meal and oil were also both lower in the December contracts into the close. This week’s weather forecasts call for generally dry conditions in the Midwest to start the week, followed by showers during the middle of the week and a return of dry weather to end the week. Analysts indicate that this may result in some stress to late developing soybeans in drier areas. Some traders have expressed concern over a possible deterioration in US yields from the 44 bushels per acre projected by the USDA in early August. However, a minor drop in yield would still leave the US and the world with ample stocks through the end of 2010/11 based on current usage projections. This week’s export inspections for soybeans were 7.17 million bushels, down from 11.8 million last week. Inspections need to average 25 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s current export projection for 2009/10 with about one week to go. In China, heavy rains have caused significant flooding in southern Manchurian soybean growing areas (the NE) and in the northern and eastern North China Plain. Other areas are seeing more favorable weather.

November Soybeans ended 3 1/2 lower at 1022 1/2, 2 up from the low and 11 1/2 off the high.

December Soybean Oil ended 0.27 lower at 40.53, 0.16 up from the low and 0.57 off the high.

December Soymeal closed 0.8 lower at 298.7. This was 4.3 off the high and 0.7 up from the low.  

After reading ï»¿today’s review,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders  momentum.  The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports.  Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it.  In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much.  Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.  Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.

Andy Waldock circulates this blog.  Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, broker, asset manager, trader, and analystfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio.  Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his relatives, or his customers in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant to develop a discussion and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors due to the high degree of leverage.  There is considerable risk in investing in commodity futures.  If you are interested in reading other published articles, commenting  on his writings or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.

The daily commentaries provide a recap of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a review of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day.  CME Group provides market commentaries for wheat, soybeans, corn, gold and silver.   The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.